24. Systemwissenschaftliches Kolloquium
Das Kolloquium findet nur im Wintersemester jeweils mittwochs von 16:15 bis 18:00 Uhr im Institut für Umweltsystemforschung, Barbarastr. 22c, Raum 93/E07 statt.
Prof. Dr. Andreas Thiel, Universität Kassel, Ökologische Agrarwissenschaften:
Polycentricity and natural resource governance.
Prof. Dr. Frank Wätzold, Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Brandenburgische Technische Universität Cottbus-Senftenberg:
A modelling procedure and a decision support system to design ecologically effective and cost-effective conservation payments in grassland.
Jun.-Prof. Dr. Florian Diekert, Alfred-Weber-Institut für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Universität Heidelberg:
Tipping points and the communal use of natural resources.
Jun.-Prof. Dr. Thomas Müller, Senckenberg Biodiversität und Klima Forschungszentrum, Frankfurt/Main:
Animal movements: From individual behaviors to conservation applications.
Prof. Dr. Jonathan Jeschke, Freie Universität Berlin, Fachbereich Biologie, Chemie, Pharmazie, Institut für Biologie:
Hierarchies of hypotheses and other new tools for ecological synthesis.
Dr. Daniel Neumann, Leibniz-Institut für Ostseeforschung Warnemünde:
Air quality modelling and the importance of sea salt emissions for air quality predictions.
Prof. Dr. Benjamin Burkhard, Leibniz-Universität Hannover, Institut für Physische Geographie und Landschaftsökologie:
Mapping and assessment of ecosystems and their services within the EU Biodiversity Strategy 2020.
Prof. Dr. Uwe Latacz-Lohmann, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Kiel:
Using discrete choice experiments to inform the design of PES (Payments for Environmental Services) schemes.
Prof. Dr. Andrea Lenschow, Fachbereich Kultur- und Sozialwissenschaften, Universität Osnabrück:
Governance for sustainability in telecoupled relations.
Jun.-Prof. Dr. Annie Waldherr, Institut für Kommunikationswissenschaft, Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster:
News waves and opinion spirals: Studying the public sphere as a complex system.
Kurzfassung der Vorträge
Prof. Dr. Andreas Thiel, Universität Kassel, Ökologische Agrarwissenschaften
Polycentricity and natural resource governance
Polycentricity puts dynamics of self-organisation among citizens but also among public agents centre stage in the way governance and management of people’s affairs are organized. The presentation will explain a particular perspective of polycentricity, which uses the writings around it to analyze the dynamics and performance of governance. Particularly, it will focus on the role of variables underlying polycentric governance, i.e. social problem characteristics and constitutional rules and assumptions. The presentation will illustrate the application of this perspective for a variety of natural resource management problems. It will be applied to investigate the determinants of the organisation of water governance in Europe; it will be used to theorize cross-sectoral nexus governance, similarly in the water sector; and it will be used to illustrate how social problem characteristics and constitutional rules shape biodiversity governance and governance of global value chains and its performance. In essence, the presentation therefore wonders how putting self-organisation centre stage can enhance our understanding of (natural resource) governance.
Prof. Dr. Frank Wätzold, Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Brandenburgische Technische Universität Cottbus-Senftenberg
A modelling procedure and a decision support system to design ecologically effective and cost-effective conservation payments in grassland
Agri-environment schemes (AES), under which farmers are compensated for forms of land use that benefit wildlife, help to protect the environment from the harmful effects of agriculture across Europe. With limited conservation budgets, how to design more cost-effective schemes has become a major focus for research. This study presents a new modelling tool to design cost-effective schemes to conserve grassland biodiversity, defining a cost-effective AES as one that “either maximises the level of conservation of endangered species and habitats for a given budget or achieves the desired conservation aims for a minimum budget”. The model covers a range of endangered grassland species (including 13 bird species and 14 butterfly species) and seven different types of grassland. It also accounts for the effects of 475 types of mowing regimes, grazing regimes and combinations of both. Importantly, the procedure accounts for differences in the cost and effect of these measures depending on where (spatial variation) and when they are applied (temporal variation). The model was applied to the German Federal State of Saxony, and identified major cost improvements. The procedure suggested that all species and grassland types that are conserved by the existing scheme (which costs €11 127 000 to implement) could be conserved for €7 974 000 — resulting in a €3 153 000 saving. What’s more, the new scheme also improved conservation, with moderate improvements in protection for birds and significant improvements for butterflies. The model provides the basis for a decision support software, DSS-Ecopay, to design ecologically effective and cost-effective AES in grasslands. The software is available free of charge at http://www.inf.fu-berlin.de/DSS-Ecopay/ecopay_main_eng.html
Jun.-Prof. Dr. Florian Diekert, Alfred-Weber-Institut für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Universität Heidelberg
Tipping points and the communal use of natural resources
Many natural resources are characterized by complex processes that exhibit tipping points. Crossing such a threshold can have desastrous, and potentially irreversible, consequences. For example, the cod stock off the coast of Eastern Canada has — to this day — not recovered after it has collapsed in the early 1990’s. Similarly, the cod stock off the coast of Norway was on the brink of collapse at the end of the 1980’s. Here, however, a combination of policy and beneficial climatic change has turned the tide. Today this cod stock is the largest in the world supports one of the most valuable whitefish on the globe. Tipping points are in fact not only a threat but also a chance. In my talk, I will present an overview of the research on this topic, including some of my own work. I ask under which condition a threatening threshold can serve as a catalyst to stand together and when it leads to a situation where each agent tries to grab what can be grabbed before it is too late.
Jun.-Prof. Dr. Thomas Müller, Senckenberg Biodiversität und Klima Forschungszentrum, Frankfurt/Main
Animal movements: From individual behaviors to conservation applications
Animal movement receives widespread attention within ecology and behavior. However, much research is restricted within isolated sub-disciplines focusing on single phenomena such as navigation, search strategies or theoretical considerations of optimal population dispersion. My research focuses on integrating individual-level behavior and population-level spatial distributions with respect to spatio-temporal resource dynamics. For example, how do landscape dynamics effect animal movement and lead to population patterns such as range residency or migration? How can individual- or social learning effect long distance animal movements?
Of particular interest when studying animal movements is an increasing human footprint that poses exceptional challenges for moving animals. How can long distance animal movements persist under increasing landscape fragmentation? One study system are Mongolia’s eastern steppes, the largest intact temperate grassland ecosystem in the world. Mongolian gazelles roam these steppe in vast number and their nomadic long-distance movements lead to huge area requirements. At the same time Mongolia faces a major economical transition phase that leads to dramatic changes of the steppe landscapes. How to shape human development to allow landscape permeability for moving animals is one of the key questions for applied movement research.
Prof. Dr. Jonathan Jeschke, Freie Universität Berlin, Fachbereich Biologie, Chemie, Pharmazie, Institut für Biologie
Hierarchies of hypotheses and other new tools for ecological synthesis
Massive amounts of ecological and other data are accumulating each year. In the current era of Big Data, the statement by Naisbitt that “we are drowning in information but starved for knowledge” from the 1980s seems to be more applicable than ever before. We arguably lack effective tools for research synthesis at a macro level, tools that help “connect the dots.” I will present new synthesis tools – Hierarchies of Hypotheses (HoH's), networks of major hypotheses and research questions, among others – and give examples for applications of these tools in invasion ecology and biogeography.
Dr. Daniel Neumann, Leibniz-Institut für Ostseeforschung Warnemünde
Air quality modelling and the importance of sea salt emissions for air quality predictions
The Northwestern European coastal areas are subject to considerable anthropogenic activities yielding emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere. In particular, air pollution by fine sulfate particles and formation of acid deposition by nitric and sulfuric acid are major threats to human health and the environment. In addition, atmospheric nitrogen input into water bodies causing eutrophication pose a risk to ecosystem functioning. Anthropogenic emissions of sulfur compounds and nitrogen oxides have been considerably reduced in the European Union in the last 25 years. However, their magnitude is still of great concern.
Coastal areas are also characterized by natural marine emissions, particularly of particulate sea salt. Sea salt particles interact with air pollutants and influence their deposition patterns – and, thus, affect where air pollutants and nutrients enter the ocean. The emissions and impacts of sea salt particles are highly variable in space and time.
Measurement campaigns provide information on local air pollution, but lack detailed spatial resolution. Atmospheric chemistry transport models (CTMs) are tools to model the spatio-temporal variability of air pollutants by calculating advection, diffusion, chemical reaction, and coagulation of atmospheric compounds. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System is such a CTM. It was used to model the air quality in Northwestern Europe and to evaluate the impact of oceanic sea salt emissions on air quality and nutrient deposition.
The results presented at the Systemwissenschaftliches Kolloquium were produced at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Department on Chemistry Transport Modelling.
Prof. Dr. Benjamin Burkhard, Leibniz-Universität Hannover, Institut für Physische Geographie und Landschaftsökologie
Mapping and assessment of ecosystems and their services within the EU Biodiversity Strategy 2020
Mapping and assessment of ecosystems and their services are central to the EU Biodiversity Strategy 2020. The Strategy foresees in its Action 5 that all EU member states shall map and assess the state of ecosystems and their services in their national territories, assess the economic value of such services and promote the integration of these values into accounting and reporting systems at EU and national level by 2020. Thus, an appropriate framework, methods from ecological and socio-economic sciences as well as respective data to answer relevant question from society, policy, business or science are needed. Information and data on Ecosystem Service (ES) supply, demands, beneficiaries and potential mismatches with their supply location as well as ES quality and quantity, are mandatory for appropriate policy and decision making. Action 5 sets the requirements for an EU-wide knowledge-base, designed to be a primary resource for developing Europe’s green infrastructure, to identify areas for ecosystem restoration and a baseline against which the goal of ‘no net loss of BD and ES’ can be evaluated. The presentation will give an overview of ongoing related initiatives in Europe with special focus on the EU Horizon 2020 Support and Coordination Action ESMERALDA (Enhancing ecosystem services mapping for policy and decision making) and the implementation of MAES (Mapping and Assessment of Ecosystems and their Services) in Europe.
Prof. Dr. Uwe Latacz-Lohmann, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Kiel
Using discrete choice experiments to inform the design of PES (Payments for Environmental Services) schemes
Discrete choice experiments (DCE) have been increasingly applied to assess farmers’ preferences for alternative designs of hypothetical agri-environmental schemes. We extend the DCE approach by asking farmers not only to choose among alternative agri-environmental contracts but also to choose the land area they would be prepared to offer for a wildlife conservation programme. This extended approach allows us to (1) estimate supply curves for wildlife conservation for alternative contract designs and (2) formulate optimal contracts taking explicitly account of the effect of contract design and farm characteristics on the participation area. In a first stage, we use a multinomial Heckman model to estimate the probabilities of specific contract types being chosen and the corresponding marginal willingness-to-accept (WTA) figures. In a second stage, we identify by means of an OLS regression the factors affecting the land area offered under contract. The OLS analysis corrects for the sample selection bias from first-stage choices. Based upon the estimates from both stages, contracts for a hypothetical conservation scheme are optimized such that the environmental benefit is maximized given alternative program budgets. The results show that the optimal design of conservation contracts is sensitive to the program budget.
Jun.-Prof. Dr. Annie Waldherr, Institut für Kommunikationswissenschaft, Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster
News waves and opinion spirals: Studying the public sphere as a complex system
Understanding the public sphere as a complex, adaptive system helps understanding dynamic macro phenomena of public communication. In terms of complexity theory, the public sphere can be conceptualized as an arena where heterogeneous, autonomous and adaptive agents interact and self-organize. Multiple feedback mechanisms lead to the emergence of non-linear macro patterns such as news waves or opinion spirals. In my talk, I will first show how fundamental characteristics of complexity apply to the system of the public sphere Ð particularly in our contemporary digitized world. Then, I will illustrate this perspective by presenting two agent-based models. The first model simulates the typical stylized pattern of news waves by modeling the adaptive behavior of journalists and strategic issue sponsors. The second model builds on Noelle-Neumann's (1974) theory of the spiral of silence assuming that fear of isolation causes people to only speak out their opinion if they perceive a favorable opinion climate surrounding them. We will discuss the macro consequences of several micro assumptions of these models and think about how both models might be combined.